God's Success Rate, Bible Say Whaaa?, Genesis, Chapters 4-5

This chapter contains all of the begats, though my version of the Bible does not use that word. This is the boring section of the Bible (because all of the other chapters are absolutely riveting), so I will not write a useless and repetitive rant on how ridiculous the names are, how asinine it is to calculate the age of the earth based on this chapter, or how the hell Eve lived with herself after banging her son (because according to the way in which the story is told, Cain had his children before any daughters of Adam and Eve's are listed). Instead, I am going to calculate god's success rate.

I am going to assume that all of the information in the Bible is accurate and to be taken as literally as is possible, which is the same perspective from which I've been deconstructing the Bible since the beginning. Based on this information, I will calculate just how often god gets something right, and I will be as generous in god's favor as it seems fair to be. Keep in mind that these calculations are just as ridiculous as it is to take this story literally (or figuratively, for that matter).

God's Success Rate:

Second & third generations: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Adam and Eve is seven (Cain, Abel, Seth, plus sons and daughters). Cain has one named child (Enoch), Abel has zero, and the lowest number that can be attributed to Seth is five (Enosh, s&d). Thus, our average for number of children per child of Adam and Eve is two. That is then seven by two, which is fourteen.

Fourth generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Enoch is one (Irad) and to Enosh is five (Kenan, s&d). Our average is then three. Three by fourteen is 42.

Fifth generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Irad is one (Mehujael) and to Kenan is five (Mahalalel, s&d). Our average is then three. Three by 42 is 126.

Sixth generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Mehujael is one (Methushael) and to Mahalalel is five (Jared, s&d). Our average is then three. Three by 126 is 378.

Seventh generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Methushael is one (Lamech) and to Jared is five (Enoch, s&d). Our average is then three. Three by 378 is 1,134.

Eighth generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Lamech is four (Jabal, Jubal, Tubal-Cain, and Naamah) and to Enoch is five (Methusaleh, s&d). Our average is then 4.5. 4.5 by 1,134 is 5,103.

Ninth generation: The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Jabal is incalculable (he is the father of those who live in tents and raise livestock), but for the sake of being as generous as possible, let's call it one son. The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Jubal is also incalculable (he is the father of all those who play harp and flute), so let's also call this one son. No children are attributed to Tubal-Cain or Naamah. The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Methusaleh is five (Lamech, s&d). Our average is then 1.4. 1.4 by 5,103 is 7,144.2.

Tenth generation: Again, for the sake of generosity, let's attribute one son each the one child attributed each to Jabal and Jubal. The lowest number of children that can be attributed to Lamech is five (Noah, s&d). Our average is then 2.33. 2.33 by 7,144.2 is 16,669.8.

Eleventh generation: Let's continue to attribute one son each to the lines of Jabal and Jubal. We can attribute three children to Noah (Shem, Ham, and Japheth). Our average then is 1.67. 1.67 by 16,669.8 is 27,783.

Noah then has children, but as they are only allowed on the ark as part of Noah's contract with god, we cannot conclude whether they are good, only that they are related to Noah. We can, however, conclude that all of the other eleventh generation children are not good, as god did not single any of them out as good. We can also assume that most if not all of the tenth generation have had their children by the time of the flood, as the flood is 600 years after Noah's birth.

This means that out of all of the 27,783 people that we have estimated to be in existence (and estimated with generous numbers, I might add), god realizes that only one is good. This means that god's success rate in creating good is 1/27,783, or .000036%. And he doesn't even realize this until 1,656 years later (as calculated by the number of years listed from creation until flood. I thought about calculating some kind of rate of good over a period of time. I decided against it because I'm not that masochistic.).

Okay, now I know what you must be thinking by now. You must be thinking, "Well, this is all well and good, but god didn't care about whether the women were good or bad. You shouldn't be including them into your calculations." And you know what? You're right. Back in the day, god really didn't seem to care about the ladies' behavior (unless they're particularly bad, like Eve). Let's calculate god's success rate without including the women.

I won't bore you with more calculations. I'll just tell you that I calculated what percentage of people we can "reasonably" assume are women based on what percentage of women were listed in each generation of children. The number of women calculated per each generation is 30%, a laughably low percentage. Of course it is ridiculous to assume that only 30% of people were women, as it is likely that there were many more women that just were not mentioned. I would add in my defense, though, that this entire exercise has been ridiculous, so why not add to it?

If we subtract 30% of the population from 27,783, we get 19,448. If we calculate god's success rate as being 1/19,448, then god is successful in creating something good about .0000514% of the time.

We all know what happens next. God kills everyone but Noah and his family but swears he will never send a flood again. He doesn't, however, seem to correct his abysmally low success rate.

So, let's calculate what percentage of the people on earth today would be viewed as good in this god's eyes. According to the World Population Clock, as of the time I am writing this, it is approximated that there are 7,024,127,900 people living. This time we count the women, because apparently god does care about them now. If god's success rate is still the same, then only 361,040 people living today are good. I guess the Jehovah's Witnesses got it slightly wrong.

But holy crap! Only 361,040 people are good enough to not warrant being wiped out by a flood? That's a scary world we live in, right? Good thing this is all just make believe. If god can't even do better than chance, by admission of the people who believe in him, why is he even worth praising if you do assume that he's real?